What is the Future for Egypt?


The Arab Spring saw a host of “revolutions” that deposed dictators on the basis of their authoritarian rule, yet post-Arab Spring some states collapsed entirely, others clung on to power and some were overthrown by new dictators. It has now become clear that the Arab Spring was indeed engineered through Western NGO’s and youth movements despite claims it being a “blessed revolution”. Those who rode the bandwagon of “blessed revolution” should now accept the reality that the Arab Spring was a pretext to destruction and turmoil in the Muslim lands in order to subdue them, demilitarise them and shatter their hopes of political Islam.

Egypt’s el-Sisi is a known ally of the U.S. before and after his presidency and it is made all the more clearer when the U.S. fail to clearly denounce the coup that overthrew the democratically elected Morsi, despite it being clear policy that the U.S. does not work with governments who come about through military coups or non-democratic means. They briefly halted military trade for a few years but continued trading shortly after when Egypt began buying from other nations. 

Five years ago under Hosni Mubarak it was imperative to keep Egypt as a strong strategic ally of the U.S. as Egypt was a cornerstone for U.S. strategy in the Middle East and U.S. was a cornerstone of Egyptian strategy. Today, the U.S. have penetrated the Middle East replaced Russian and European influence with American influence, as is the case with Libya and Syria.  However, any strain in the relationship between Egypt and the U.S. will have adverse affects for both, although more detrimental for Egyptians, in terms of security and economy. A sad state of affairs considering the Muslims should not be relying on the West for security and economy but this is ultimately the reality today when the Western nations can destroy the Muslims through proxy warfare, pretext of terrorism and economic sanctions.

Egypt’s military heavily relies on U.S. military assistance and this accounts for a quarter of Egyptian defence expenditure. This is because Egypt owns 200+ F16’s, 1000 M1 Abrams and other American military equipment which requires constant maintenance, training and support. Such a heavy reliance means that Egypt cannot use its military without the tacit support of America, and so for those people who say it’s a bad move by the West to sell weaponry to Muslim countries because one day the Khilafah will control and use it against them, this is unrealistic as the Khilafah may not have the capability to maintain such equipment without U.S. support. Similarly in other Arab countries that have highly sophisticated militaries, such as Saudi, Jordan and Iran.

Trapping the Muslim Brotherhood

It is evident that the Muslim Brotherhood under Dr. Morsi was never allowed to continue longer than it had done.  It was a deceitful trick by the Americans to expose the Muslim Brotherhood channels through legitimising their existence only to hack to death every vein that became apparent. This loss of blood for the Muslim Brotherhood completely shattered almost 100 years of work they have done on the ground in Egypt and across the Arab world. America’s plans for Egypt was never going to include the Muslim Brotherhood nor is it to include a military dictatorship but rather it is biding its time to execute the plans for Syria, Libya and Yemen.  Many of the Brotherhood’s members are now back underground or in prisons, and some have created shadow parties in other countries such as Turkey.

Will Sisi remain?

Sisi’s reign will no doubt remain for now due to the sensitivity of the American military routes. 30 American warships including nuclear powered aircraft carriers pass through the Suez Canal regularly and more than 2000 U.S. military planes fly over Egypt’s air space annually. These numbers increase several-fold during wartime. These routes are a big asset for the U.S. as other routes are more costly and give other nations a trump card over the U.S.

A report titled “The Future of the US-Egyptian Relationship”  by American think tank CSIS mentioned that:

“when Egypt was revolutionary, the region felt revolutionary, and when Egypt was tilting Islamic, the region seemed to tilting Islamic.”

Therefore it is better that Egypt is not tilting Islamic  or revolutionary (for now) for the West. It is however impossible to steer Egypt into a “secular democracy” or a “democracy with Islamists” when Sisi is purging the Muslim Brotherhood out of the various sectors it used to enjoy fiefdom in, a group far more interlinked into the fabric of Egyptian society than the Gulenists are in the current purge in Turkey.

It will be Sisi’s duty under instruction of the Americans to continue his brutal crackdown while the Western nations conclude their operations in their near abroad, but little does Sisi realise that his undermining of liberal democracy and authoritarianism will also be his own downfall for the West can easily conjure up an Arab Spring like narrative against him and replace him with the “peoples choice”.

America needs Sisi for the time being while Syria, Libya and Yemen are being resolved militarily because any impediment to American military at this sensitive time can leave America without control of those regions. Israel also needs a strong Egypt ally while their borders  feel threatened, hence Sisi’s continuous vocal support for Israel and its joint objectives in Sinai.

If and when the other regions are concluded, Egypt can easily see destabilisation at their own doorstep as it won’t be hard to “stoke up the youth” against Sisi or even a reformed Muslim Brotherhood led by the liberal youth members adopting the Turkish model for democracy.

Wake up call for the Muslims in Egypt

For the Muslims residing in Egypt, you have been stung hard once already and the muddy waters have become clear to who the aggressor was. You may enjoy the price of bread today more so than you did under Morsi but you will surely enjoy the taste of the afterlife more when you work towards the real solution.

Don’t hide beneath your covers now because Allah (swt) has made it plain to you that working within a secular system to gradually implement the Sharia is indeed the wrong method!

Let this be a sign from the Almighty Allah ‘Azza wa-jalla that the only method to resume the Islamic way of life whereby the Muslims will have protection, security and prosperity is the method of the Beloved Prophet ﷺ!

 

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